NBA games

NO @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28312627112
ATL26323432124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ATL
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 35 29 6 2
Yves Missi S 35 23 12 0
Brandon Boston 29 19 4 0
Trey Murphy III S 37 14 1 5
Javonte Green S 26 10 6 2
Dejounte Murray S 38 7 5 10
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 22 7 3 1
Daniel Theis 13 3 4 0
Elfrid Payton 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 29 22 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 35 19 6 2
Jalen Johnson S 32 19 7 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 13 1 1
Onyeka Okongwu 19 12 4 1
Trae Young S 36 12 8 15
Kobe Bufkin 12 10 2 1
Clint Capela S 29 9 17 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 25 8 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 12-foot two point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Trae Young ATL
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Yves Missi NO
9%
8 CJ McCollum NO
8%
9 Dejounte Murray NO
7%
10 Javonte Green NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
36%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.4 5.8 7.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.2 9.6 6.6
3 Trae Young ATL 21.6 3.3 14.2
4 CJ McCollum NO 19.3 4.2 3.8
5 Trey Murphy III NO 18.6 5.5 2.5
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.7 4.5 2.0
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.7 6.0 4.0
8 Dejounte Murray NO 15.6 5.8 6.1
9 Brandon Boston NO 13.6 4.2 4.3
10 Yves Missi NO 12.6 10.5 1.7
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.2 7.8 1.8
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.4 3.6 2.1
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.8 3.8 1.7
14 Clint Capela ATL 10.6 10.9 1.5
15 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 10.3 6.9 1.8
16 Javonte Green NO 9.3 4.1 1.4
17 Kobe Bufkin ATL 8.8 2.9 2.8
18 Elfrid Payton NO 8.3 4.3 6.5
19 Jamal Cain NO 6.2 3.6 1.0
20 Antonio Reeves NO 5.9 1.9 0.8
21 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.7 2.2 1.1
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.6 1.4 1.3
23 Daniel Theis NO 4.6 3.0 1.0
24 Trey Jemison III NO 4.5 3.5 1.0
25 David Roddy ATL 4.5 2.1 1.3
26 Vit Krejci ATL 4.2 1.8 1.4
27 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.9 2.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.