NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
122–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN23363132122
LAC32273334126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 28 14 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 18 7 1
Jamal Murray S 38 18 0 7
Julian Strawther 19 15 2 2
Peyton Watson S 29 13 5 2
Christian Braun S 36 11 7 2
Aaron Gordon 24 10 1 4
Russell Westbrook 25 9 3 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 38 39 9 11
Norman Powell S 25 28 0 1
Terance Mann 25 15 3 1
Amir Coffey 18 13 5 1
Jordan Miller 15 8 2 2
Ivica Zubac S 35 6 8 5
Mo Bamba 13 6 5 0
Kris Dunn S 23 4 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 4 4 0
Nicolas Batum 23 3 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 James Harden LAC
9%
4 Christian Braun DEN
9%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
9 Norman Powell LAC
7%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.6 12.5 9.4
2 James Harden LAC 24.4 5.7 9.1
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.0 3.3 3.3
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.1 6.7 3.2
5 Jamal Murray DEN 19.2 4.3 6.5
6 Christian Braun DEN 17.3 5.0 2.3
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.8 11.9 2.4
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.7 4.4 6.2
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.2 5.1 3.1
10 Peyton Watson DEN 11.7 4.4 1.5
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.4 2.9 1.6
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.8 3.6 1.4
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.4 3.8 2.9
14 Julian Strawther DEN 7.2 2.3 1.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 7.1 2.9 1.9
16 Jordan Miller LAC 6.3 2.1 1.2
17 Mo Bamba LAC 5.7 4.3 1.0
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.4 2.4 1.1
19 Bones Hyland LAC 4.6 1.8 0.9
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.1 2.6 0.8
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.6 0.5
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 3.1 0.5
23 Kai Jones LAC 2.4 2.1 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.5 0.8 0.3
25 PJ Hall DEN 1.4 0.5 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.2 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.