NBA games

SA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
127–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA28303435127
SAC42233228125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home SAC
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 34 14 11
Devin Vassell 24 21 0 3
Julian Champagnie S 32 19 8 1
Keldon Johnson 29 17 4 1
Chris Paul S 34 13 2 10
Harrison Barnes S 27 8 7 2
Stephon Castle S 33 8 0 1
Tre Jones 14 7 1 1
Zach Collins 6 0 0 1
Charles Bassey 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 28 5 8
Domantas Sabonis S 37 25 13 6
De'Aaron Fox S 37 23 6 9
Malik Monk S 37 19 7 6
Isaac Jones 19 12 4 1
Keegan Murray S 38 8 6 0
Keon Ellis 17 8 3 0
Jae Crowder 11 2 5 1
Colby Jones 7 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
18%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.4 4.7 6.8
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.9 10.5 5.1
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.1 12.3 6.6
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.1 4.6 4.8
5 Stephon Castle SA 17.1 3.4 5.2
6 Malik Monk SAC 16.5 4.0 4.1
7 Devin Vassell SA 16.4 2.3 3.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.5 5.1 1.8
9 Keldon Johnson SA 11.7 5.2 2.1
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.3 4.5 1.6
11 Keegan Murray SAC 11.2 6.6 1.7
12 Chris Paul SA 10.9 3.2 7.6
13 Keon Ellis SAC 8.3 2.8 1.4
14 Zach Collins SA 5.8 3.5 1.4
15 Tre Jones SA 5.3 2.4 3.4
16 Malaki Branham SA 4.7 1.2 1.2
17 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.0 1.5
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.8 0.5
19 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.1 1.8 1.2
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.5 0.6
21 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.6 2.1 0.8
22 Charles Bassey SA 3.5 3.6 0.3
23 Isaac Jones SAC 3.5 2.1 0.5
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.9 1.5 0.7
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 1.5 0.5
26 Alex Len SAC 2.0 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.