NBA games

DAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
137–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL25363937137
POR29293934131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home POR
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 36 7 13
Quentin Grimes S 36 28 5 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 34 20 1 5
Daniel Gafford S 27 19 4 4
P.J. Washington S 37 14 3 6
Jaden Hardy S 23 13 3 1
Dwight Powell 15 5 2 1
Maxi Kleber 27 2 7 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 23 27 3 5
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 22 4 3
Deni Avdija 29 21 4 2
Deandre Ayton S 32 18 7 3
Toumani Camara S 36 17 7 4
Jerami Grant S 37 14 5 6
Dalano Banton 25 9 3 5
Rayan Rupert 3 3 0 0
Jabari Walker 12 0 4 1
Kris Murray 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Hardy · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jaden Hardy makes 1-foot layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
14%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
9%
8 Deni Avdija POR
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
10 Quentin Grimes DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
30%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.7 6.7 7.9
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.0 3.8 3.0
3 Anfernee Simons POR 17.0 2.9 3.8
4 Deandre Ayton POR 15.9 10.0 1.7
5 Jerami Grant POR 14.5 2.9 2.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.4 9.8 2.6
7 Deni Avdija POR 14.3 6.2 3.6
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.6 8.4 1.6
9 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.3 4.7 2.2
10 Dalano Banton POR 12.1 3.6 3.3
11 Scoot Henderson POR 11.1 2.8 5.1
12 Toumani Camara POR 10.7 5.1 2.5
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 2.4 1.9
14 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 8.7 2.5 3.6
15 Donovan Clingan POR 6.1 7.0 0.7
16 Jazian Gortman DAL 5.2 1.4 1.0
17 Kris Murray POR 4.5 2.2 0.7
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.0 3.1 0.8
19 Jabari Walker POR 3.3 2.4 0.9
20 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.8 0.9
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.9 1.9 0.5
22 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.9 1.1 0.5
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.3 0.6
24 Duop Reath POR 2.6 1.4 0.5
25 Taze Moore POR 1.9 1.4 0.4
26 Markieff Morris DAL 1.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.