NBA games

LAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
105–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26322819105
UTAH27292523104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home UTAH
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 33 11 0
LeBron James S 36 27 5 14
Rui Hachimura S 40 13 7 3
Max Christie 30 12 5 2
Gabe Vincent S 32 10 3 2
Dalton Knecht S 30 6 7 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino 13 4 1 1
Armel Traore 11 0 2 0
Christian Koloko 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 38 22 7 4
John Collins S 36 21 9 3
Collin Sexton S 29 15 3 4
Keyonte George S 32 14 4 4
Walker Kessler S 35 13 11 2
Johnny Juzang 16 11 4 5
Brice Sensabaugh 17 6 2 3
Drew Eubanks 11 2 1 0
Micah Potter 15 0 2 0
Isaiah Collier 12 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes 3-foot dunk (John Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 John Collins UTAH
12%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Dalton Knecht LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.3 11.4 4.3
2 LeBron James LAL 24.6 8.8 10.7
3 John Collins UTAH 21.1 10.0 3.2
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.6 5.9 2.6
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 18.8 3.2 3.8
6 Keyonte George UTAH 17.3 3.3 5.8
7 Dalton Knecht LAL 16.8 4.4 1.9
8 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.1 10.2 1.5
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.8 4.1 1.7
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.4 2.5 1.2
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.7 1.5 1.5
12 Micah Potter UTAH 7.2 6.1 1.6
13 Max Christie LAL 6.3 2.1 1.1
14 Cam Reddish LAL 5.7 2.5 1.0
15 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.7 2.0 3.8
16 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.3 4.0 1.2
17 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.0 2.8 1.1
18 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.5 1.4 3.0
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.4 1.4 0.9
20 Patty Mills UTAH 3.2 0.9 1.0
21 Armel Traore LAL 2.9 2.5 0.5
22 Christian Koloko LAL 2.7 2.0 0.6
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.7 1.2 0.6
24 Bronny James LAL 2.4 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.