NBA games

OKC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28323620116
HOU33292928119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home HOU
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 32 8 5
Jalen Williams S 37 22 5 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 19 13 4
Cason Wallace S 36 14 9 2
Aaron Wiggins 27 13 3 3
Luguentz Dort S 27 6 3 6
Kenrich Williams 15 5 2 0
Dillon Jones 11 5 2 1
Isaiah Joe 13 0 0 2
Ajay Mitchell 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 35 38 2 3
Alperen Sengun S 38 20 14 9
Dillon Brooks S 29 16 7 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 15 14 0
Amen Thompson 26 9 6 1
Jalen Green S 34 9 2 3
Tari Eason 24 6 5 1
Reed Sheppard 10 5 0 0
Steven Adams 4 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
29%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.7 4.7 6.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.7 6.1 5.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.3 11.4 6.2
4 Jalen Green HOU 18.4 5.0 2.9
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.9 4.8 6.4
6 Amen Thompson HOU 14.2 8.6 2.3
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.9 10.8 3.7
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.5 3.7 2.3
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.8 5.9 1.2
10 Tari Eason HOU 10.4 7.5 1.4
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 5.6 1.7
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.6 3.3 1.6
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.7 3.2 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 3.3 2.3
15 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.0 1.8 1.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.9 2.5 0.8
17 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.5 1.2 0.9
18 Cam Whitmore HOU 3.5 1.2 0.6
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.3 0.9 0.9
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.2 2.4 0.9
21 Steven Adams HOU 3.0 2.5 1.0
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.0 3.2 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.4 1.8 0.4
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.9 0.4
25 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.0 0.9 0.3
26 Branden Carlson OKC 1.7 1.3 0.3
27 Adam Flagler OKC 1.6 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.