NBA games

MIA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24362729116
TOR34313321119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home TOR
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 31 4 3
Terry Rozier 29 17 1 5
Jimmy Butler III S 34 17 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 39 13 20 7
Pelle Larsson 18 8 1 0
Duncan Robinson S 21 8 1 2
Haywood Highsmith S 27 7 4 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 6 3 3
Kevin Love 10 5 5 1
Alec Burks 6 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 38 37 7 5
Scottie Barnes S 35 23 10 9
Jakob Poeltl S 37 17 11 3
Ja'Kobe Walter S 17 12 3 0
Chris Boucher 16 8 2 0
Davion Mitchell 28 7 0 3
Ochai Agbaji S 38 7 5 3
Jamison Battle 14 3 2 1
Jonathan Mogbo 14 3 7 6
Jamal Shead 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:41 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
11%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.9 7.0 6.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.6 5.3 5.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 8.3 6.7
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.0 5.2 5.0
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 17.8 12.2 2.2
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.5 9.6 5.9
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.5 3.1 2.7
8 Terry Rozier MIA 11.3 3.5 2.8
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.7 4.4 1.9
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.8 4.7 2.2
11 Chris Boucher TOR 8.6 4.9 1.0
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 2.9 1.4
13 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.4 2.6 4.8
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.2 2.1 1.3
15 Alec Burks MIA 6.0 2.3 1.3
16 Jamison Battle TOR 6.0 1.9 1.0
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.9 3.8 1.5
18 Kevin Love MIA 5.6 3.9 1.0
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.1 3.6 1.0
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.0 2.7 0.8
21 Jamal Shead TOR 4.7 1.4 2.1
22 Josh Richardson MIA 3.8 1.2 1.1
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.3 2.6 1.2
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.1 2.2 0.6
25 Dru Smith MIA 3.1 1.7 1.3
26 Kel'el Ware MIA 2.8 1.7 0.5
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.4 2.0 0.8
28 D.J. Carton TOR 1.9 1.0 0.9
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.