NBA games

NO @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
85118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO1018282985
NY33243625118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home NY
5% 95%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 25 13 3 3
Brandon Boston 19 13 3 2
Yves Missi S 20 11 8 1
Trey Murphy III S 29 11 4 2
Jamal Cain 8 10 1 0
Dejounte Murray S 30 10 8 5
Elfrid Payton 17 6 1 7
Javonte Green S 23 5 4 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 20 2 4 0
Daniel Theis 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 36 31 4 1
Jalen Brunson S 26 16 2 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 25 14 19 2
Miles McBride 22 13 2 3
Josh Hart S 31 12 6 3
Cameron Payne 16 8 3 5
Matt Ryan 9 8 1 0
OG Anunoby S 31 7 4 2
Jericho Sims 23 4 13 2
Ariel Hukporti 9 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot two point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 OG Anunoby NY
11%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
10%
7 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
9 CJ McCollum NO
9%
10 Javonte Green NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
18%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.5 3.6 8.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.4 11.9 4.4
3 OG Anunoby NY 20.1 5.9 2.0
4 Trey Murphy III NO 17.7 5.5 2.3
5 CJ McCollum NO 17.3 4.1 3.2
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.5 4.1 3.4
7 Josh Hart NY 15.5 7.7 6.0
8 Dejounte Murray NO 14.6 5.2 5.7
9 Brandon Boston NO 11.7 4.2 4.8
10 Yves Missi NO 10.4 8.4 1.5
11 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 10.2 6.4 1.6
12 Miles McBride NY 10.2 3.2 2.3
13 Javonte Green NO 9.1 3.7 1.3
14 Cameron Payne NY 9.0 2.5 3.1
15 Elfrid Payton NO 7.7 4.3 6.4
16 Antonio Reeves NO 4.8 1.4 0.6
17 Jamal Cain NO 4.4 2.6 0.8
18 Daniel Theis NO 4.4 2.9 1.0
19 Trey Jemison III NO 3.4 2.8 0.8
20 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 3.8 0.8
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.1 1.0 0.8
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 2.2 0.4
23 Matt Ryan NY 1.6 0.5 0.3
24 Jacob Toppin NY 1.4 0.7 0.4
25 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.2 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.