NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
111–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS24253527111
CLE28232143115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 33 8 4
Payton Pritchard 36 24 7 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 21 8 2
Sam Hauser S 36 13 5 2
Al Horford S 30 8 5 1
Drew Peterson 25 8 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 34 4 3 5
Luke Kornet 9 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 35 7 3
Darius Garland S 32 22 5 8
Georges Niang 22 13 2 1
Caris LeVert 23 13 6 1
Evan Mobley S 35 9 10 4
Jarrett Allen S 32 8 10 0
Isaac Okoro S 24 6 2 2
Ty Jerome 11 6 0 1
Sam Merrill 21 3 1 2
Jaylon Tyson 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
19%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
18%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
5 Darius Garland CLE
12%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
10%
8 Al Horford BOS
0%
9 Ty Jerome CLE
0%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
17%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.0 9.9 6.8
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.8 6.2 4.3
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.9 3.5 6.8
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.6 10.2 3.1
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.0 3.1 2.8
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.6 9.6 1.7
7 Ty Jerome CLE 13.5 2.6 4.7
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.8 4.8 4.6
9 Caris LeVert CLE 12.0 3.3 4.5
10 Al Horford BOS 10.5 5.6 2.5
11 Georges Niang CLE 9.2 3.5 1.4
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 3.1 1.4
13 Neemias Queta BOS 7.1 6.0 1.3
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.8 2.4 1.8
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.8 2.3 1.4
16 Luke Kornet BOS 4.6 4.1 1.2
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 1.6 1.4
18 Drew Peterson BOS 3.7 1.2 0.5
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.5 2.0 1.0
20 JD Davison BOS 3.2 0.8 1.1
21 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 0.9 0.7
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.3 1.2 0.4
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.3 1.2 0.4
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 2.2 0.4
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.