NBA games

IND @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
121–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND45232330121
MEM28344034136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MEM
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 19 9 3
Pascal Siakam S 30 17 2 6
Obi Toppin 22 16 8 1
T.J. McConnell 22 15 4 4
Andrew Nembhard S 15 14 2 4
Myles Turner S 31 12 6 2
Jarace Walker 25 9 7 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 8 2 7
Johnny Furphy 7 6 1 0
Quenton Jackson 9 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 25 8 0
Ja Morant S 27 19 2 8
Marcus Smart 23 16 1 6
Desmond Bane S 30 16 6 6
Santi Aldama 25 15 4 6
Jaylen Wells S 26 13 6 1
Jake LaRavia 22 11 3 5
Brandon Clarke S 24 8 4 1
Luke Kennard 14 6 3 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 11 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
8%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 24.5 5.1 9.6
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.3 6.6 2.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.2 6.6 3.5
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.2 3.3 8.2
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.7 7.1 2.2
6 Myles Turner IND 16.1 7.7 1.7
7 Desmond Bane MEM 14.5 6.7 4.3
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.0 7.0 3.5
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.5 3.5 2.4
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.1 4.1 4.8
11 T.J. McConnell IND 10.3 3.9 3.8
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.9 4.2 3.5
13 Marcus Smart MEM 9.8 2.9 4.3
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.6 3.3 1.6
15 Quenton Jackson IND 8.3 2.8 2.0
16 Jay Huff MEM 8.3 2.8 1.0
17 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.2 6.4 1.2
18 Luke Kennard MEM 7.8 2.8 3.3
19 Jarace Walker IND 6.7 3.9 2.0
20 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.6 1.7 3.2
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 2.3 1.2
22 Moses Brown IND 4.5 2.2 0.5
23 Tristen Newton IND 4.3 1.6 1.8
24 John Konchar MEM 3.7 2.7 1.1
25 Johnny Furphy IND 3.6 1.8 0.7
26 Enrique Freeman IND 3.0 1.5 0.6
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.0 0.7 0.8
28 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.