NBA games

ORL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
100–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL26242525100
BKN2921192392

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BKN
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 20 9 8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 16 1 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 14 7 1
Moritz Wagner 16 12 8 2
Goga Bitadze S 32 12 13 2
Jalen Suggs S 27 12 3 5
Anthony Black 20 5 4 1
Tristan da Silva 23 4 4 3
Cole Anthony 5 3 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 36 26 4 1
Dennis Schroder S 37 20 2 7
Trendon Watford 25 13 3 1
Keon Johnson 32 12 4 2
Nic Claxton S 28 9 7 0
Shake Milton 20 6 2 0
Jalen Wilson S 22 5 3 0
Ziaire Williams S 22 1 5 1
Ben Simmons 12 0 2 5
Tyrese Martin 8 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Goga Bitadze · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Goga Bitadze makes 5-foot hook shot (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Dennis Schroder BKN
12%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Tyrese Martin BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
19%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 28.2 5.9 7.3
2 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.7 3.8 5.8
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.7 4.1 3.5
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.6 3.8 3.9
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.9 4.7 2.2
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.5 2.8 2.4
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.4 7.3 1.9
8 Anthony Black ORL 10.4 3.0 4.4
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.8 3.5 1.5
10 Nic Claxton BKN 9.8 7.1 2.6
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 4.3 1.4
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.2 7.3 2.0
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.7 4.0 1.8
14 Trendon Watford BKN 8.4 3.1 1.5
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.4 6.4 0.9
16 Ben Simmons BKN 7.3 5.7 5.8
17 Shake Milton BKN 7.0 1.8 2.3
18 Keon Johnson BKN 6.2 2.9 1.2
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.5 2.1 0.9
20 Cole Anthony ORL 4.8 1.7 1.2
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.9 0.9
22 Cory Joseph ORL 2.9 1.4 0.8
23 Dariq Whitehead BKN 2.7 1.1 0.5
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Yongxi Cui BKN 0.9 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.