NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
105–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS29202927105
PHX35311928113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 23 7 4
Andrew Wiggins S 34 18 3 3
Draymond Green S 31 13 2 7
Brandin Podziemski S 33 12 7 4
Jonathan Kuminga 19 12 2 1
Buddy Hield 16 11 1 1
Kevon Looney 16 9 6 1
Lindy Waters III 13 3 3 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 15 2 6 2
Kyle Anderson 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 27 3 9
Kevin Durant S 36 21 10 3
Tyus Jones S 32 19 3 9
Grayson Allen S 32 17 4 3
Royce O'Neale 19 11 2 1
Monte Morris 15 8 5 3
Oso Ighodaro 31 6 8 0
Mason Plumlee S 16 2 6 1
Ryan Dunn 20 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trayce Jackson-Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Trayce Jackson-Davis makes layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
17%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
13%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
5 Tyus Jones PHX
10%
6 Stephen Curry GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Lindy Waters III GS
8%
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
49%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.1 6.5 4.0
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.4 3.5 6.8
3 Stephen Curry GS 23.8 5.8 6.7
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.8 4.4 2.8
5 Tyus Jones PHX 14.2 2.7 7.3
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 13.6 4.6 2.3
7 Grayson Allen PHX 11.4 2.7 1.5
8 Draymond Green GS 10.4 6.7 6.9
9 Buddy Hield GS 10.4 2.9 1.6
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.1 5.3 2.0
11 Josh Okogie PHX 7.5 3.1 1.0
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.0 5.5 1.7
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.0 3.6 3.0
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.2 2.8 1.1
15 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 2.7 1.2
16 Moses Moody GS 6.1 2.3 1.0
17 Kyle Anderson GS 5.9 2.9 2.5
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.9 5.5 2.0
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.8 1.1
20 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.5 4.0 1.1
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.5 2.7 1.0
22 Monte Morris PHX 4.2 1.4 0.9
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.9 2.7 0.9
24 Pat Spencer GS 3.3 1.6 1.6
25 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.