NBA games

WSH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
114–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29292828114
MIL28352932124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIL
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 31 4 7
Malcolm Brogdon S 30 29 11 3
Corey Kispert 31 16 8 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 31 16 7 5
Alex Sarr S 36 7 2 1
Kyshawn George 19 4 2 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 4 2 4
Marvin Bagley III 4 4 2 0
Bub Carrington 16 3 3 2
Anthony Gill 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 42 12 11
Damian Lillard S 40 25 5 10
Brook Lopez S 35 18 0 3
AJ Green 26 13 1 1
Taurean Prince S 24 11 1 2
Bobby Portis 23 9 6 2
Gary Trent Jr. 20 2 4 2
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 2 9 0
Delon Wright 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
23%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
6 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
7%
7 AJ Green MIL
7%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
3%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 37.1 12.2 8.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 27.6 4.2 8.8
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.8 3.5 5.1
4 Brook Lopez MIL 14.5 5.2 2.2
5 Bobby Portis MIL 12.8 6.1 1.8
6 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 12.6 3.9 2.7
7 Alex Sarr WSH 12.1 6.0 2.2
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.2 5.7 2.8
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 3.4 1.6
10 Taurean Prince MIL 10.4 4.6 2.1
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.6 3.3 3.9
12 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 8.9 7.4 1.4
13 Kyshawn George WSH 8.6 3.5 2.4
14 AJ Green MIL 8.4 2.6 1.2
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.0 2.1 1.2
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.5 2.8 1.7
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.4 3.2 1.6
18 Delon Wright MIL 4.1 2.4 1.9
19 Jared Butler WSH 3.4 1.0 1.8
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.4 1.2 0.9
21 Johnny Davis WSH 3.2 1.4 0.5
22 Anthony Gill WSH 3.0 1.3 0.6
23 Marvin Bagley III WSH 2.9 1.8 0.4
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.5 1.2 0.5
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.3 2.0 0.2
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.3 1.0 0.4
27 Stanley Umude MIL 1.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.