NBA games

PHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
111–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI37203222111
DET2032172796

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DET
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 35 28 4 6
KJ Martin 27 19 6 3
Ricky Council IV 27 17 5 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 14 6 1
Paul George S 26 11 8 5
Jared McCain 29 7 4 0
Guerschon Yabusele S 25 7 8 1
Adem Bona 20 4 5 0
Andre Drummond S 4 4 3 0
Lester Quinones 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 27 19 6 4
Jaden Ivey S 27 15 2 5
Marcus Sasser 26 12 0 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 16 11 3 0
Ausar Thompson 14 9 2 1
Simone Fontecchio 23 7 11 2
Paul Reed 14 7 4 1
Isaiah Stewart 15 6 4 0
Tobias Harris S 23 4 7 2
Jalen Duren S 13 4 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 Jared McCain PHI
9%
5 Tobias Harris DET
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
9%
7 Paul George PHI
9%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.0 7.9 10.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.4 3.5 5.1
3 Jared McCain PHI 22.5 3.3 4.1
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.9 4.8 5.4
5 Malik Beasley DET 18.2 4.0 2.6
6 Paul George PHI 16.0 4.5 4.0
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.3 6.5 2.4
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.2 5.9 1.5
9 Jalen Duren DET 11.1 9.8 2.5
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.3 5.6 1.5
11 Caleb Martin PHI 9.8 3.4 2.1
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 8.9 2.7 1.8
13 Andre Drummond PHI 7.8 6.8 1.0
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.4 5.8 1.7
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.1 2.5 1.3
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.6 1.9 1.4
17 Ausar Thompson DET 6.2 2.5 3.7
18 Ronald Holland II DET 6.1 3.6 1.0
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.1 3.3 1.3
20 Paul Reed DET 4.4 2.8 0.8
21 Eric Gordon PHI 4.2 1.4 1.1
22 KJ Martin PHI 4.0 2.3 0.7
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.8 1.7 0.7
24 Justin Edwards PHI 3.6 1.5 0.3
25 Lester Quinones PHI 3.4 1.5 0.4
26 Adem Bona PHI 1.4 1.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.