NBA games

ATL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
107–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29262230107
CHA32182628104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHA
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 20 3 9
De'Andre Hunter 25 18 3 0
Onyeka Okongwu 28 16 11 2
Trae Young S 31 14 4 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 14 3 2
Kobe Bufkin 17 9 2 4
Dyson Daniels S 31 8 5 3
Clint Capela S 20 4 14 1
Garrison Mathews 13 4 1 0
Vit Krejci 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 39 32 8 4
Josh Green S 36 17 3 0
Vasilije Micic S 34 15 8 5
Cody Martin 26 12 7 5
Nick Richards 25 12 6 1
KJ Simpson 14 8 2 1
Nick Smith Jr. 17 5 1 2
Moussa Diabate S 22 3 8 3
Seth Curry 5 0 1 1
Tidjane Salaun S 22 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes technical free throw"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
17%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
4 Clint Capela ATL
9%
5 Nick Richards CHA
9%
6 Trae Young ATL
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Vasilije Micic CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
5%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 24.6 5.9 4.4
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.3 10.0 5.2
3 Trae Young ATL 19.8 3.2 8.4
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.1 6.1 3.6
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.4 4.2 1.7
6 Clint Capela ATL 11.5 10.3 1.5
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.5 6.9 1.5
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.3 3.8 1.4
9 Josh Green CHA 10.0 3.2 2.3
10 Cody Martin CHA 9.0 5.2 2.7
11 Nick Richards CHA 8.9 7.8 1.1
12 Kobe Bufkin ATL 8.5 2.8 2.6
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.2 10.2 1.3
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.2 4.6 1.5
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.4 2.5 2.5
16 KJ Simpson CHA 6.0 2.5 1.7
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.2 1.4 1.3
18 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.0 2.0 0.9
19 David Roddy ATL 4.6 2.3 1.2
20 Vit Krejci ATL 4.4 1.8 1.4
21 Taj Gibson CHA 4.4 3.7 0.9
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.3 1.5 1.0
23 Seth Curry CHA 4.1 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.