NBA games

OKC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
105–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC39232221105
GS23273318101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home GS
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 35 9 5
Isaiah Joe S 31 17 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 14 14 3
Jalen Williams S 16 13 6 7
Cason Wallace 33 9 4 6
Aaron Wiggins 14 7 1 0
Kenrich Williams 15 4 0 1
Luguentz Dort S 32 2 5 2
Ajay Mitchell 16 2 1 0
Dillon Jones 13 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 28 19 4 2
Buddy Hield 23 17 3 0
Andrew Wiggins S 35 16 5 3
Brandin Podziemski S 30 12 8 5
Kyle Anderson 17 10 2 3
Draymond Green S 32 10 14 6
Pat Spencer 15 6 4 3
Lindy Waters III S 24 4 5 1
Kevon Looney 12 3 9 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Joe · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Isaiah Joe makes 20-foot jumper (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
14%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
12%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Lindy Waters III GS
9%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
22%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.2 4.4 6.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 25.0 6.8 6.1
3 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.3 4.5 2.6
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.1 4.8 2.0
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.6 9.6 3.8
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.4 5.6 2.0
7 Draymond Green GS 10.4 6.3 6.1
8 Buddy Hield GS 10.0 3.2 1.5
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.6 3.5 1.8
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.7 3.4 1.8
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.2 5.7 1.7
12 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.9 2.0 1.9
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 3.2 1.9
14 Moses Moody GS 6.6 2.7 1.0
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.4 3.4 2.3
16 Lindy Waters III GS 6.0 2.6 1.3
17 Kyle Anderson GS 5.9 3.2 2.3
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.9 1.2
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.7 1.0
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 3.0 1.0
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.4 0.9
22 Branden Carlson OKC 2.9 1.9 0.6
23 Pat Spencer GS 1.7 0.7 1.0
24 Gui Santos GS 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.