NBA games

DEN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
122–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34293722122
UTAH35182327103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home UTAH
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 34 30 10 7
Jamal Murray S 36 22 4 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 19 7 4
Christian Braun S 41 18 7 3
Russell Westbrook 19 10 1 5
Peyton Watson S 28 9 3 2
Julian Strawther 15 9 0 1
Hunter Tyson 16 5 4 0
Spencer Jones 2 0 0 0
Trey Alexander 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 39 26 1 4
Keyonte George S 35 23 2 4
Walker Kessler S 31 16 12 5
Brice Sensabaugh 25 13 2 1
Micah Potter S 32 9 16 3
Svi Mykhailiuk S 21 7 0 1
Isaiah Collier 22 6 0 4
Oscar Tshiebwe 16 3 9 0
Drew Eubanks 2 0 0 0
Johnny Juzang 18 0 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Micah Potter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Micah Potter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Christian Braun DEN
12%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.8 11.8 9.5
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 21.0 6.7 3.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.1 4.2 6.6
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.9 3.1 6.0
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.6 3.2 4.1
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.0 4.8 6.7
7 Christian Braun DEN 17.8 4.7 2.3
8 Peyton Watson DEN 13.3 4.4 1.8
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.3 9.9 1.4
10 Julian Strawther DEN 8.9 2.8 1.6
11 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.6 4.4 2.1
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.5 2.2 1.1
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.1 1.5 1.3
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.0 2.2 1.2
15 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.8 4.4 1.2
16 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.6 2.5 3.5
17 Dario Saric DEN 4.3 2.9 1.2
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.6 3.4 0.8
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 1.6 0.8
20 Patty Mills UTAH 3.4 0.9 1.0
21 Trey Alexander DEN 3.1 1.3 0.8
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.5 0.6
23 PJ Hall DEN 2.6 1.0 0.6
24 Spencer Jones DEN 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.