NBA games

BKN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
127–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN34293331127
PHX37262133117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home PHX
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Martin 28 30 4 2
Dennis Schroder S 34 29 4 3
Trendon Watford 22 18 2 3
Ben Simmons S 27 14 9 8
Cameron Johnson S 31 11 8 6
Ziaire Williams S 25 10 4 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 9 1 2
Keon Johnson 20 4 3 1
Shake Milton 21 2 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 31 3 4
Kevin Durant S 33 30 8 2
Bradley Beal S 27 17 3 0
Tyus Jones S 32 10 2 12
Grayson Allen 30 9 5 1
Royce O'Neale 29 8 4 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 17 6 7 1
Mason Plumlee 16 6 4 2
Oso Ighodaro 7 0 1 1
Bol Bol 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Dennis Schroder BKN
11%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
8 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
42%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.2 6.4 3.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.1 3.8 7.5
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.3 4.3 3.0
4 Bradley Beal PHX 19.3 4.3 4.0
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.0 3.6 6.2
6 Tyus Jones PHX 13.1 2.6 6.6
7 Grayson Allen PHX 11.7 2.7 1.5
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 3.7 1.7
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.4 9.7 1.7
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.1 3.6 1.6
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.7 5.6 2.0
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 5.4 1.4
13 Josh Okogie PHX 8.1 3.2 1.2
14 Ben Simmons BKN 7.2 5.5 6.1
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.7 3.1 1.1
16 Trendon Watford BKN 6.3 3.4 1.3
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.0 4.0 1.1
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.9 5.6 1.8
19 Keon Johnson BKN 5.8 2.7 1.4
20 Shake Milton BKN 5.0 1.7 1.7
21 Monte Morris PHX 4.7 1.6 1.0
22 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.0 1.9 0.8
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.9 2.6 0.6
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.8 0.8
25 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.0 1.3 0.6
26 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.5 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.