NBA games

LAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
119–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32263427119
SA23243024101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SA
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalton Knecht S 31 20 8 1
Anthony Davis S 35 19 14 7
D'Angelo Russell 26 17 1 5
LeBron James S 33 16 10 11
Rui Hachimura S 26 16 5 2
Austin Reaves S 31 13 2 2
Max Christie 22 12 4 2
Christian Koloko 8 4 1 0
Armel Traore 3 2 0 0
Maxwell Lewis 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 20 10 2
Harrison Barnes S 33 19 2 0
Julian Champagnie S 31 18 5 1
Devin Vassell 21 14 3 1
Stephon Castle S 30 10 4 7
Chris Paul S 25 5 2 6
Zach Collins 11 4 2 1
Keldon Johnson 22 4 4 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 4 3 1 0
Charles Bassey 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
12%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
7 Chris Paul SA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.9 10.3 4.0
2 Anthony Davis LAL 27.3 10.8 3.5
3 LeBron James LAL 25.8 8.9 9.4
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.4 3.0 5.2
5 Stephon Castle SA 18.0 3.6 5.6
6 Devin Vassell SA 16.9 2.0 3.6
7 Harrison Barnes SA 13.5 5.9 2.1
8 Dalton Knecht LAL 13.1 3.9 1.4
9 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 5.6 2.4
10 Julian Champagnie SA 12.0 4.8 2.0
11 Chris Paul SA 11.7 3.5 8.1
12 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.6 2.8 3.8
13 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.3 4.8 1.5
14 Zach Collins SA 8.2 4.0 1.8
15 Tre Jones SA 6.7 3.0 3.9
16 Cam Reddish LAL 6.3 3.3 0.9
17 Blake Wesley SA 6.1 1.6 2.0
18 Malaki Branham SA 5.5 1.5 1.4
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.4 3.2 0.8
20 Max Christie LAL 5.1 1.9 0.9
21 Charles Bassey SA 5.0 4.6 0.7
22 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.6 1.6 0.8
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.9 2.4 0.5
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.9 1.5 0.6
25 Armel Traore LAL 2.7 3.0 0.4
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.