NBA games

TOR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
11993
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR21353132119
NO2026173093

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NO
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ochai Agbaji S 28 24 6 2
Jamison Battle 22 24 1 3
RJ Barrett S 33 22 8 11
Scottie Barnes S 32 17 12 7
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 14 11 5
Jamal Shead 15 8 1 4
Bruno Fernando 6 4 1 0
Jonathan Mogbo 15 4 2 1
Jakob Poeltl S 31 2 8 1
Garrett Temple 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 30 19 3 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 33 14 10 3
Dejounte Murray S 25 14 4 2
Yves Missi S 28 11 5 1
Elfrid Payton 27 10 5 4
Jordan Hawkins 22 6 3 1
Brandon Boston S 21 4 3 3
Trey Jemison III 6 4 1 1
Daniel Theis 14 4 6 1
Antonio Reeves 6 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja'Kobe Walter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Ja'Kobe Walter makes three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
17%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
6 Elfrid Payton NO
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
7%
8 Daniel Theis NO
7%
9 Javonte Green NO
6%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
20%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.2 6.3 5.6
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.4 7.0 6.3
3 Trey Murphy III NO 18.7 5.0 2.8
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR 17.5 11.8 2.7
5 CJ McCollum NO 16.6 4.2 3.1
6 Brandon Boston NO 14.8 4.8 5.0
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 13.7 3.8 1.7
8 Dejounte Murray NO 12.5 5.3 5.7
9 Chris Boucher TOR 11.6 5.3 1.1
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.0 4.0 1.9
11 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 11.0 6.3 1.6
12 Yves Missi NO 10.1 7.9 1.5
13 Elfrid Payton NO 10.0 5.1 7.2
14 Javonte Green NO 9.3 3.4 1.3
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 8.7 2.9 5.2
16 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 1.6 0.9
17 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.8 3.7 1.1
18 Daniel Theis NO 4.6 3.2 1.1
19 Jamal Shead TOR 4.5 1.3 1.8
20 Antonio Reeves NO 4.1 1.2 0.5
21 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.7 2.7 1.3
22 Trey Jemison III NO 2.8 2.8 0.6
23 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 2.6 2.0 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.