NBA games

SAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
115–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31381234115
MIN33242918104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 34 27 12 5
Malik Monk 35 27 8 9
De'Aaron Fox S 38 26 8 8
Jae Crowder S 27 8 4 0
Keegan Murray S 39 8 4 1
Keon Ellis S 22 8 2 2
Isaac Jones 21 8 5 1
Kevin Huerter 14 3 2 1
Jordan McLaughlin 2 0 0 0
Alex Len 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 29 5 5
Julius Randle S 36 21 9 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 17 2 3
Mike Conley S 32 16 1 4
Rudy Gobert S 37 9 7 3
Naz Reid 24 7 3 1
Donte DiVincenzo 25 5 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 24 0 2 2
Rob Dillingham 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 12-foot two point shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
22%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.6 4.5 7.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.4 5.3 4.7
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.7 6.5 4.2
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.5 12.1 6.8
5 Keegan Murray SAC 12.4 7.6 1.8
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.4 4.3 1.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 4.8 2.0
8 Malik Monk SAC 12.1 3.4 2.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.2 10.8 1.8
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.2 4.0 2.2
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.2 3.0 2.2
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.3 2.9 3.3
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.8 2.3 1.2
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.0 2.4 4.2
15 Luka Garza MIN 6.9 2.9 0.4
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.7 2.4 0.9
17 Leonard Miller MIN 5.5 4.0 0.8
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.4 1.4 1.5
19 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.1 1.7 1.1
20 Josh Minott MIN 3.8 1.8 0.6
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.4 0.6
22 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.9 0.6
23 Isaac Jones SAC 2.8 1.6 0.5
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.7 1.4 0.6
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.7 1.0 0.9
26 PJ Dozier MIN 1.9 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.