NBA games

DET @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
111–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET35182434111
MEM34373327131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MEM
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Sasser 27 22 3 5
Simone Fontecchio 22 18 2 1
Jaden Ivey S 18 17 0 1
Ronald Holland II 26 14 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 22 10 4 3
Malik Beasley S 20 10 2 3
Paul Reed 15 7 7 1
Jalen Duren S 21 6 7 3
Wendell Moore Jr. 22 4 7 2
Ausar Thompson S 20 3 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Smart 20 25 4 5
Jake LaRavia 25 19 2 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 31 19 7 4
Jaylen Wells S 24 13 2 3
Jay Huff 22 13 2 3
Brandon Clarke S 19 13 5 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 22 12 6 2
Santi Aldama 23 9 6 1
Luke Kennard 24 4 0 1
Yuki Kawamura 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
15%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
14%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
5 Jalen Duren DET
13%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
12%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Malik Beasley DET
7%
9 Simone Fontecchio DET
0%
10 Paul Reed DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.7 6.4 2.3
2 Jaden Ivey DET 20.0 5.0 5.3
3 Malik Beasley DET 18.2 3.9 2.7
4 Desmond Bane MEM 16.1 6.9 3.7
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.9 3.3 2.0
6 Santi Aldama MEM 13.7 7.6 3.4
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.5 4.6 5.1
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.3 7.0 1.8
9 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.2 4.7 4.1
10 Jalen Duren DET 9.8 9.5 2.1
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.4 2.2 1.7
12 Luke Kennard MEM 8.3 2.7 3.1
13 Jay Huff MEM 8.2 3.1 1.0
14 Marcus Smart MEM 7.4 2.7 3.5
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.9 5.1 0.9
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.9 2.5 1.1
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.3 1.4 1.0
18 Ronald Holland II DET 4.9 2.8 0.8
19 Cole Swider DET 4.7 2.4 0.7
20 John Konchar MEM 4.4 3.4 1.1
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.0 2.5 0.9
22 Paul Reed DET 3.1 1.9 0.6
23 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.4 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.