NBA games

NY @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
114–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY15233343114
DAL28323039129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DAL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 37 3 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 25 14 4
Mikal Bridges S 39 20 5 0
Josh Hart S 42 12 2 3
OG Anunoby S 40 8 5 2
Cameron Payne 20 6 1 1
Miles McBride 15 5 2 2
Jericho Sims 13 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 30 24 3 1
Kyrie Irving S 35 23 7 6
Spencer Dinwiddie 33 21 3 9
Quentin Grimes S 29 21 7 2
P.J. Washington S 36 19 10 7
Dereck Lively II S 29 12 9 2
Jaden Hardy 16 5 1 0
Jazian Gortman 2 3 0 0
Maxi Kleber 24 1 1 0
Dwight Powell 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 10-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
6 Josh Hart NY
9%
7 OG Anunoby NY
9%
8 Jaden Hardy DAL
8%
9 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 27.0 12.0 4.2
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.5 3.4 9.6
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.7 4.8 6.0
4 OG Anunoby NY 21.9 5.9 2.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.4 4.3 3.5
6 Naji Marshall DAL 16.2 4.0 2.3
7 Josh Hart NY 15.8 7.8 6.0
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.5 8.6 2.1
9 Miles McBride NY 10.3 3.1 2.6
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.4 6.3 1.7
11 Cameron Payne NY 8.2 2.3 3.6
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.9 1.9
13 Quentin Grimes DAL 7.3 4.0 2.0
14 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 6.6 2.1 2.4
15 Jazian Gortman DAL 5.7 1.2 1.2
16 Jericho Sims NY 3.9 4.1 0.8
17 Tyler Kolek NY 3.9 1.4 1.0
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.8 2.7 0.8
19 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.3 1.8 0.7
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.5 1.6 0.5
21 Matt Ryan NY 2.4 1.0 0.5
22 Dwight Powell DAL 1.9 2.2 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.8 2.2 0.4
24 Markieff Morris DAL 1.5 1.1 0.4
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.4 0.8 0.3
26 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.4 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.