NBA games

LAC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
121–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC37242733121
WSH2618252796

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home WSH
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 32 43 4 7
Ivica Zubac S 24 18 16 1
Jordan Miller 20 15 2 2
Bones Hyland 8 10 1 2
Mo Bamba 16 6 4 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 6 6 1
Amir Coffey S 21 6 1 2
Terance Mann 25 6 1 4
Kevin Porter Jr. 25 4 5 1
Kai Jones 8 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas 18 17 7 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 22 17 1 6
Alex Sarr S 23 13 5 0
Corey Kispert 23 9 4 1
Jordan Poole S 25 8 0 3
Marvin Bagley III 8 7 4 0
Jared Butler 8 6 0 0
Anthony Gill 15 4 2 2
Johnny Davis 8 4 1 1
Bub Carrington 19 3 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 8-foot two point shot (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 James Harden LAC
9%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 23.6 6.7 9.1
2 Jordan Poole WSH 21.9 3.4 5.2
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 19.1 6.1 2.7
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.4 12.6 2.3
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.8 5.8 3.2
6 Alex Sarr WSH 12.5 6.1 2.7
7 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 12.0 4.0 2.3
8 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 3.2 1.8
9 Bub Carrington WSH 10.7 3.8 4.7
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.6 3.5 1.5
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.5 3.0 1.7
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.5 3.8 3.5
13 Kyshawn George WSH 10.2 3.8 2.7
14 Kris Dunn LAC 10.1 3.9 3.6
15 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.3 7.2 1.4
16 Terance Mann LAC 7.2 3.5 1.6
17 Jordan Miller LAC 6.8 2.2 1.3
18 Mo Bamba LAC 5.7 4.6 1.0
19 Bones Hyland LAC 5.6 2.2 1.0
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.2 2.7 1.0
21 Jared Butler WSH 3.9 1.4 2.0
22 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.6 2.1 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 1.4 0.7
24 Johnny Davis WSH 3.4 1.7 0.6
25 Kai Jones LAC 3.3 2.6 0.7
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.3 1.5 0.6
27 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.3 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.