NBA games

HOU @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
122–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU3520332014122
PHI242731267115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHI
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 41 41 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 35 22 14 7
Amen Thompson 40 19 12 2
Tari Eason 26 14 7 2
Fred VanVleet S 42 13 3 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 25 8 3 0
Aaron Holiday 6 3 0 0
Steven Adams 7 2 4 0
Reed Sheppard 6 0 0 1
Dillon Brooks S 36 0 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 45 39 2 10
Guerschon Yabusele S 43 22 7 2
Jared McCain S 41 15 6 1
Ricky Council IV 27 12 10 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 45 11 5 1
KJ Martin 22 8 2 1
Andre Drummond S 29 6 9 2
Eric Gordon 7 2 1 0
Reggie Jackson 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
11%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Jared McCain PHI
9%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
10 Tari Eason HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
42%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.9 3.7 4.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 10.5 5.8
3 Jared McCain PHI 22.0 2.7 4.0
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.8 4.8 6.2
5 Jalen Green HOU 16.1 4.9 2.7
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.6 3.6 2.0
7 Amen Thompson HOU 13.2 7.4 2.5
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.9 6.2 1.3
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.1 7.6 1.4
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.9 5.5 1.7
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.2 5.4 1.3
12 Andre Drummond PHI 7.9 6.5 0.9
13 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.6 1.7 1.2
14 Eric Gordon PHI 4.6 1.4 1.4
15 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.3 1.2 1.6
16 Justin Edwards PHI 4.1 1.7 0.5
17 KJ Martin PHI 4.0 2.3 0.7
18 Jock Landale HOU 3.9 3.6 0.9
19 Lester Quinones PHI 3.8 1.7 0.6
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.2 0.9 1.0
21 Steven Adams HOU 3.1 3.0 1.2
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.7 1.0 0.8
23 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.7 1.0 1.0
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.5 1.0 0.4
25 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.3 1.0 0.3
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.0 1.9 0.4
27 Adem Bona PHI 1.8 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.