NBA games

CHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
119–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25293431119
ORL38353228133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ORL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 31 21 4 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 20 1 1
Nikola Vucevic S 30 19 11 4
Josh Giddey S 23 13 2 5
Coby White S 26 9 2 2
Zach LaVine S 31 8 5 10
Matas Buzelis 25 7 2 0
Lonzo Ball 15 6 1 3
Chris Duarte 4 5 2 0
E.J. Liddell 17 5 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 32 31 3 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 24 1 2
Franz Wagner S 31 21 3 6
Moritz Wagner 18 15 4 4
Goga Bitadze S 25 11 11 3
Cole Anthony 11 9 1 1
Tristan da Silva 19 8 3 1
Jonathan Isaac 22 4 6 1
Anthony Black 15 4 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 18 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
18%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.9 5.8 7.3
2 Zach LaVine CHI 23.0 4.4 5.1
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.4 9.8 3.3
4 Coby White CHI 18.4 4.1 4.7
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 15.0 4.9 2.3
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.1 4.3 3.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.2 3.2 4.3
8 Josh Giddey CHI 12.0 5.4 5.5
9 Anthony Black ORL 12.0 3.4 5.1
10 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.4 7.7 1.9
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.9 3.1 2.3
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.7 4.2 1.9
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.1 6.9 1.7
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.3 6.1 0.9
15 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.9 2.1 1.6
16 Dalen Terry CHI 5.2 1.8 1.2
17 Cole Anthony ORL 5.2 2.3 1.3
18 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.1 2.5 0.6
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.8 2.4 0.7
20 Lonzo Ball CHI 4.6 1.5 2.1
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 1.7 1.0
22 Torrey Craig CHI 4.0 1.6 0.6
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.5 1.2 0.7
24 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.3 1.6 0.5
25 Chris Duarte CHI 3.2 1.3 0.7
26 Cory Joseph ORL 2.2 1.1 0.8
27 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.9 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.