NBA games

POR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31292529114
IND26343625121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home IND
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 30 4 6
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 17 3 3
Scoot Henderson 35 17 2 9
Deni Avdija S 41 16 5 7
Deandre Ayton S 34 16 12 2
Dalano Banton 17 8 4 1
Toumani Camara S 24 8 4 2
Jabari Walker 11 2 3 1
Rayan Rupert 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 38 29 7 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 39 28 7 10
Bennedict Mathurin S 40 24 10 3
Myles Turner S 38 15 8 1
Quenton Jackson S 33 9 5 4
Obi Toppin 16 6 5 2
T.J. McConnell 15 6 4 3
Moses Brown 4 2 1 0
Jarace Walker 10 2 0 0
Johnny Furphy 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes 1-foot two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
3 Myles Turner IND
9%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.4 6.2 3.7
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 20.8 7.5 2.6
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.2 3.5 10.3
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.1 3.6 2.5
5 Myles Turner IND 16.8 7.9 1.9
6 Jerami Grant POR 15.0 3.2 2.4
7 Anfernee Simons POR 14.3 3.1 3.7
8 Deandre Ayton POR 12.9 9.6 1.3
9 Deni Avdija POR 12.3 6.2 3.2
10 Dalano Banton POR 10.6 3.5 3.3
11 T.J. McConnell IND 10.3 3.6 4.1
12 Scoot Henderson POR 10.2 2.9 5.0
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.1 5.8 2.1
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 3.1 1.6
15 Quenton Jackson IND 7.2 2.4 2.1
16 Jarace Walker IND 7.0 4.3 2.1
17 Donovan Clingan POR 6.9 7.3 0.9
18 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.9 1.8 3.5
19 Moses Brown IND 5.8 3.2 0.6
20 Tristen Newton IND 4.4 1.3 2.2
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 2.0 0.7
22 Kris Murray POR 4.1 2.0 0.7
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.7 2.5 0.8
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.3 1.3 0.7
25 Enrique Freeman IND 3.1 1.4 0.7
26 Duop Reath POR 2.8 1.5 0.6
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.7 1.3 0.6
28 James Johnson IND 2.0 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.