NBA games

ATL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
135–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL35263737135
CLE35293129124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CLE
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 30 26 5 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 22 9 7
Trae Young S 37 20 4 22
Zaccharie Risacher S 17 17 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 17 3 0
Dyson Daniels S 36 12 10 1
Onyeka Okongwu 29 10 5 4
Kobe Bufkin 11 9 4 1
Clint Capela S 19 2 9 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 30 4 7
Evan Mobley S 37 22 12 5
Darius Garland S 33 19 2 7
Jarrett Allen S 32 17 10 1
Sam Merrill 17 10 2 0
Isaac Okoro S 23 8 4 3
Ty Jerome 24 8 0 6
Georges Niang 21 8 8 1
Jaylon Tyson 11 2 2 1
Craig Porter Jr. 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
11%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Trae Young ATL
9%
8 Darius Garland CLE
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 24.5 3.6 8.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 5.9 4.1
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.5 10.3 5.4
4 Trae Young ATL 20.5 3.0 13.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 20.4 9.8 3.1
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.9 6.1 3.7
7 Ty Jerome CLE 16.5 2.8 5.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.0 11.0 2.2
9 Clint Capela ATL 13.3 10.0 1.6
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.1 3.9 1.9
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.2 4.4 1.9
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 10.3 3.1 2.2
13 Kobe Bufkin ATL 9.8 3.2 2.8
14 Georges Niang CLE 9.8 3.5 1.5
15 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.7 6.4 1.6
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.6 3.0 2.0
17 Sam Merrill CLE 7.0 2.4 1.8
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.8 1.2 1.3
19 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.4 2.1 1.0
20 David Roddy ATL 4.9 2.3 1.1
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 1.8 1.9
22 JT Thor CLE 4.1 1.9 0.5
23 Vit Krejci ATL 4.0 1.4 1.4
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.0 2.1 1.2
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.