NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
98–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2624252398
CHA2613193694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 27 8 5
Duncan Robinson S 33 22 3 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20 11 7 0
Bam Adebayo S 36 8 10 10
Terry Rozier 25 7 1 1
Jimmy Butler III S 25 6 4 3
Pelle Larsson 15 6 2 0
Haywood Highsmith S 30 5 2 1
Kel'el Ware 12 4 4 0
Alec Burks 6 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 37 32 10 7
Brandon Miller S 38 21 2 3
Tidjane Salaun S 38 17 4 2
Vasilije Micic 14 6 2 1
Josh Green S 30 6 2 3
Cody Martin 23 4 6 3
Nick Smith Jr. 9 3 1 1
Seth Curry 9 3 0 0
Taj Gibson S 10 2 5 0
Moussa Diabate 33 0 11 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
17%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
15%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
5 Taj Gibson CHA
9%
6 Tidjane Salaun CHA
7%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
10 Josh Green CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
15%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 28.9 5.6 8.3
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.1 5.1 5.9
3 Brandon Miller CHA 22.5 6.0 4.7
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.9 5.9 5.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.9 9.6 5.0
6 Terry Rozier MIA 12.4 3.8 3.4
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.8 2.9 2.5
8 Cody Martin CHA 9.1 4.5 2.5
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.2 3.0 1.2
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.1 5.3 2.5
11 Josh Green CHA 7.5 3.0 1.8
12 Alec Burks MIA 6.5 2.5 1.5
13 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.0 1.8 1.3
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.8 10.0 1.1
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.7 3.0 1.0
16 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.5 2.2 1.0
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.0 4.0 1.2
18 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.4 2.0 1.9
19 KJ Simpson CHA 4.4 2.2 1.5
20 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.8 2.2 0.6
21 Josh Richardson MIA 3.8 1.2 1.1
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.5 1.3 0.8
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 3.5 0.6
24 Seth Curry CHA 3.2 1.3 0.6
25 Dru Smith MIA 3.1 1.9 1.3
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.9 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.