NBA games

OKC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
130–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31323433130
SAC30322225109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SAC
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 37 4 11
Jalen Williams S 32 28 4 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 32 19 10 4
Ajay Mitchell 18 13 0 1
Kenrich Williams 15 10 5 4
Isaiah Joe 21 9 1 1
Aaron Wiggins S 22 8 4 0
Cason Wallace 15 4 1 0
Branden Carlson 3 2 4 0
Luguentz Dort S 39 0 10 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 30 2 6
Domantas Sabonis S 35 21 10 3
Keegan Murray S 38 14 10 2
Malik Monk 26 14 1 3
De'Aaron Fox S 40 14 3 5
Keon Ellis S 28 8 1 3
Isaac Jones 9 6 2 0
Trey Lyles 6 2 0 2
Doug McDermott 3 0 1 0
Alex Len 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
20%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
8%
5 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
6 De'Aaron Fox SAC
7%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
9 Alex Len SAC
6%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
5%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.6 4.5 6.5
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.8 4.6 6.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.0 6.5 5.3
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.9 5.2 4.4
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.2 13.2 6.7
6 Keegan Murray SAC 12.7 8.0 1.9
7 Malik Monk SAC 11.4 3.0 2.4
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.1 4.5 2.5
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.8 4.4 1.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.0 8.0 3.4
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 3.3 1.5
12 Keon Ellis SAC 7.9 2.7 1.2
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.7 3.0 1.5
14 Trey Lyles SAC 7.6 4.7 1.3
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.2 2.8 1.7
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.1 1.4 1.5
17 Doug McDermott SAC 4.2 1.5 0.6
18 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.2 1.7 1.2
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.8 1.9 0.4
20 Colby Jones SAC 2.9 1.6 0.7
21 Dillon Jones OKC 2.6 1.9 0.7
22 Branden Carlson OKC 2.5 1.5 0.5
23 Adam Flagler OKC 2.0 0.7 0.3
24 Alex Len SAC 1.9 2.4 0.6
25 Malevy Leons OKC 1.7 1.4 0.3
26 Isaac Jones SAC 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.