NBA games

BKN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
128–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN34242941128
GS30372528120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 31 31 5 7
Cam Thomas S 23 23 3 1
Ziaire Williams S 37 19 10 4
Jalen Wilson S 41 18 7 2
Shake Milton 28 13 3 3
Keon Johnson 30 8 2 0
Trendon Watford 18 8 4 1
Cameron Johnson S 14 5 2 2
Tyrese Martin 18 3 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 29 28 4 7
Andrew Wiggins S 33 18 5 1
Moses Moody 16 15 2 1
Lindy Waters III S 28 13 4 1
Buddy Hield 17 9 3 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 17 8 3 1
Gary Payton II 22 8 9 4
Brandin Podziemski 23 7 1 6
Draymond Green S 29 6 6 7
Kyle Anderson 14 4 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
16%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
12%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
5 Stephen Curry GS
11%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Lindy Waters III GS
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
10 Buddy Hield GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.8 3.7 4.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.7 5.7 6.8
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.5 4.3 3.1
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.9 4.3 2.7
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 16.1 3.6 5.9
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.5 4.7 2.1
7 Buddy Hield GS 11.5 3.4 1.7
8 Draymond Green GS 11.0 6.2 6.2
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.0 3.6 1.7
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.3 5.9 1.8
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.7 4.6 1.2
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.7 3.4 2.5
13 Moses Moody GS 6.5 2.4 1.0
14 Kyle Anderson GS 6.2 3.1 2.2
15 Trendon Watford BKN 5.9 3.5 1.4
16 Kevon Looney GS 5.7 6.6 1.3
17 Keon Johnson BKN 5.6 2.8 1.4
18 Lindy Waters III GS 5.5 2.2 1.5
19 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 2.4 1.0
20 Shake Milton BKN 4.7 1.5 1.6
21 Tyrese Martin BKN 2.8 1.0 0.5
22 Dariq Whitehead BKN 1.8 0.8 0.4
23 Gui Santos GS 1.7 0.9 0.4
24 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.