NBA games

NY @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
145–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY36403732145
DEN24293431118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DEN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 38 40 5 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 30 15 4
Jalen Brunson S 38 23 3 17
Mikal Bridges S 36 14 2 6
Miles McBride 28 13 6 3
Josh Hart S 28 12 6 5
Cameron Payne 18 11 1 5
Tyler Kolek 2 2 0 1
Matt Ryan 2 0 0 0
Pacome Dadiet 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook 26 27 3 3
Nikola Jokic S 32 22 7 7
Jamal Murray S 31 20 4 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 18 10 0
Christian Braun S 32 14 1 2
Peyton Watson S 22 6 0 0
Hunter Tyson 10 5 1 1
Julian Strawther 23 4 2 1
Trey Alexander 11 2 0 1
Zeke Nnaji 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Christian Braun makes layup (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
3 Christian Braun DEN
12%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
7 Josh Hart NY
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Nikola Jokic DEN
7%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
61%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.4 11.1 9.7
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.6 12.0 4.0
3 Jalen Brunson NY 25.3 3.3 8.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.8 6.4 3.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 19.8 5.9 2.3
6 Jamal Murray DEN 19.6 4.5 6.5
7 Christian Braun DEN 17.7 4.8 2.4
8 Mikal Bridges NY 16.4 4.3 3.5
9 Josh Hart NY 16.1 8.1 6.3
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.5 4.7 7.3
11 Peyton Watson DEN 13.5 4.7 1.8
12 Julian Strawther DEN 9.4 2.8 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 9.3 2.5 2.2
14 Cameron Payne NY 8.0 2.3 3.1
15 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.1 1.2
16 Tyler Kolek NY 4.0 1.4 0.9
17 Trey Alexander DEN 4.0 1.4 1.1
18 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.7 1.8 0.7
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 3.3 0.7
20 Jericho Sims NY 3.6 3.8 0.8
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.1 1.7 0.7
22 PJ Hall DEN 2.8 1.1 0.5
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.5 0.6
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 2.3 0.4
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.6 0.8 0.4
26 Matt Ryan NY 1.4 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.