NBA games

POR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
98–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2430212398
MEM36292731123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MEM
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija 32 17 8 6
Shaedon Sharpe S 30 15 4 2
Jerami Grant S 21 11 2 1
Dalano Banton 24 11 2 2
Toumani Camara S 28 10 8 3
Jabari Walker 23 9 6 2
Rayan Rupert 22 9 1 1
Robert Williams III S 12 6 3 1
Anfernee Simons S 30 5 4 4
Duop Reath 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 23 22 2 11
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 21 6 1
Santi Aldama 22 13 17 2
Jay Huff 20 12 4 0
Brandon Clarke S 25 11 9 0
Luke Kennard 22 11 2 3
Desmond Bane S 24 8 7 2
Jake LaRavia 20 8 5 5
Marcus Smart 19 6 0 4
Jaylen Wells S 16 5 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
12%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
10 Brandon Clarke MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.3 6.5 2.2
2 Ja Morant MEM 21.2 4.8 8.3
3 Desmond Bane MEM 17.8 6.5 3.8
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.5 3.6 2.5
5 Anfernee Simons POR 16.4 3.1 3.8
6 Jerami Grant POR 15.5 3.2 2.6
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 15.2 4.7 5.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.0 3.4 2.2
9 Santi Aldama MEM 13.6 6.6 3.6
10 Deandre Ayton POR 12.4 9.5 1.3
11 Dalano Banton POR 11.2 3.5 3.4
12 Deni Avdija POR 10.5 5.7 2.7
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.4 4.6 4.4
14 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 5.5 2.1
15 Robert Williams III POR 8.9 6.5 1.4
16 Jay Huff MEM 7.6 2.8 1.0
17 Luke Kennard MEM 7.3 2.5 3.2
18 Donovan Clingan POR 7.0 7.4 0.9
19 Marcus Smart MEM 6.1 2.2 3.2
20 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.0 4.1 0.9
21 Kris Murray POR 4.4 2.2 0.7
22 John Konchar MEM 3.9 3.5 1.2
23 Duop Reath POR 3.4 1.6 0.7
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.4 1.8 0.6
25 Justin Minaya POR 3.3 1.2 0.6
26 Jabari Walker POR 3.0 2.1 0.6
27 Taze Moore POR 2.2 1.3 0.5
28 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.9 0.4 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.