NBA games

LAC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
94–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2029291694
BOS27512127126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home BOS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 29 23 10 1
James Harden S 30 19 8 9
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 11 2 1
Jordan Miller 20 10 1 0
Terance Mann 23 10 6 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 7 2 1
Amir Coffey S 25 4 4 0
Kai Jones 9 3 2 1
Kobe Brown 5 3 0 0
Kris Dunn S 22 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 30 20 9 4
Payton Pritchard 26 20 2 4
Derrick White S 31 19 4 7
Jaylen Brown S 31 17 6 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 16 6 2
Neemias Queta 25 12 9 3
Sam Hauser 23 9 2 0
Jrue Holiday S 29 5 4 6
Jordan Walsh 7 5 0 0
Jaden Springer 5 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"James Harden makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Al Horford BOS
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
30%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.2 8.1 6.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.1 5.9 5.1
3 James Harden LAC 22.7 6.5 8.3
4 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.8 4.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.8 11.6 2.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.4 2.7 3.1
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.3 4.3 4.2
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.8 3.7 1.2
9 Amir Coffey LAC 10.8 2.9 1.6
10 Al Horford BOS 10.6 5.7 2.3
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.1 3.5 3.0
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 3.6 2.9
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.4 3.0 1.3
14 Jordan Miller LAC 7.0 2.4 1.2
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.5 5.7 1.0
16 Terance Mann LAC 6.2 3.4 1.5
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.5 2.2 0.8
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.7 0.8
19 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 3.3 1.1
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 2.0 0.7
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.2 1.2 0.5
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.9 0.9 0.3
23 Kai Jones LAC 1.8 1.8 0.3
24 Jaden Springer BOS 1.7 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.