NBA games

DAL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
129–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28333533129
ATL31362824119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home ATL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 41 32 7 6
Jaden Hardy S 32 23 3 2
Spencer Dinwiddie 36 22 3 4
Naji Marshall S 28 22 6 1
P.J. Washington S 39 11 10 4
Daniel Gafford 23 10 9 3
Maxi Kleber 20 7 7 1
Dereck Lively II S 11 2 4 2
Jazian Gortman 5 0 1 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 37 28 11 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 18 3 1
Trae Young S 35 18 2 16
Dyson Daniels S 35 17 1 2
Clint Capela S 22 12 5 1
De'Andre Hunter 31 9 4 2
Onyeka Okongwu 22 8 7 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 17 5 2 2
Kobe Bufkin 13 4 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
18%
2 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
13%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
4 Trae Young ATL
12%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
6 Clint Capela ATL
12%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
0%
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.7 4.7 6.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.8 10.4 6.0
3 Trae Young ATL 21.1 3.0 12.3
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.4 5.5 3.8
5 Naji Marshall DAL 16.0 4.0 2.5
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 14.0 7.8 1.5
7 P.J. Washington DAL 13.7 9.5 2.2
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.7 4.1 1.8
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.5 4.5 2.0
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.2 10.0 1.6
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.4 6.6 1.7
12 Kobe Bufkin ATL 10.4 3.1 2.8
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.5 7.3 1.8
14 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 8.9 3.0 2.4
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.9 1.9 1.9
16 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 6.5 2.3 2.2
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.5 1.5 1.6
18 Jazian Gortman DAL 5.5 0.9 1.2
19 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.5 2.2 1.0
20 David Roddy ATL 5.0 2.3 1.3
21 Vit Krejci ATL 5.0 1.8 1.7
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.8 2.6 0.9
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.6 1.5 0.4
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 2.6 0.7
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 1.5 0.5
26 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.9 0.6 0.4
27 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.