NBA games

NO @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25322627110
IND29302827114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home IND
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 40 24 6 4
CJ McCollum S 31 23 4 1
Yves Missi 31 16 13 0
Elfrid Payton S 31 14 7 21
Brandon Boston 26 9 2 3
Daniel Theis S 17 8 1 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 21 7 8 2
Javonte Green S 26 7 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 18 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 34 3 13
Myles Turner S 28 17 9 1
Pascal Siakam S 37 14 7 7
Quenton Jackson S 32 12 2 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 38 12 9 3
Obi Toppin 16 7 2 2
T.J. McConnell 21 7 5 0
Moses Brown 10 6 2 0
Enrique Freeman 4 3 0 0
Jarace Walker 18 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Theis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Daniel Theis makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Elfrid Payton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Yves Missi NO
8%
6 CJ McCollum NO
8%
7 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
8 Elfrid Payton NO
7%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.2 5.8 3.2
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.4 7.5 2.2
3 Myles Turner IND 18.3 7.9 1.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.3 3.3 9.0
5 Trey Murphy III NO 18.2 5.0 2.4
6 Brandon Boston NO 16.3 5.0 5.2
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 15.7 4.0 1.6
8 CJ McCollum NO 14.0 3.5 2.9
9 T.J. McConnell IND 11.0 3.4 4.5
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 10.8 6.3 1.5
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 3.2 1.5
12 Javonte Green NO 8.7 3.4 1.2
13 Yves Missi NO 8.0 7.3 1.6
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.9 4.8 2.1
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.1 1.8 3.4
16 Elfrid Payton NO 6.9 3.8 5.0
17 Quenton Jackson IND 6.6 2.3 1.7
18 Moses Brown IND 6.3 3.2 0.6
19 Tristen Newton IND 5.1 1.6 2.3
20 Jamal Cain NO 5.0 3.1 0.9
21 Antonio Reeves NO 5.0 1.7 0.7
22 Daniel Theis NO 4.4 3.6 0.9
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.9 1.6 0.8
24 Enrique Freeman IND 3.7 2.0 0.8
25 Trey Jemison III NO 3.6 3.2 0.8
26 James Johnson IND 1.9 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.