NBA games

TOR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
100–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22263220100
DET29192430102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DET
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 31 14 7
RJ Barrett S 34 17 3 2
Chris Boucher 22 10 7 0
Jamison Battle 22 9 4 1
Bruno Fernando 14 9 4 5
Jakob Poeltl S 28 8 11 2
Jamal Shead 17 8 2 4
Jonathan Mogbo 12 5 3 1
Davion Mitchell S 31 3 1 3
Ochai Agbaji S 24 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 36 25 5 8
Malik Beasley S 33 14 2 5
Jalen Duren S 25 13 12 4
Tobias Harris S 37 12 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 35 10 2 1
Isaiah Stewart 23 9 7 2
Marcus Sasser 14 9 2 1
Ausar Thompson 16 5 3 4
Ronald Holland II 11 4 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 9 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes two point shot (Jaden Ivey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
7 Jalen Duren DET
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Malik Beasley DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.4 6.8 5.9
2 Jaden Ivey DET 20.3 4.8 5.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.9 6.7 5.4
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR 18.7 12.2 2.6
5 Malik Beasley DET 17.2 3.9 2.7
6 Gradey Dick TOR 16.5 3.8 2.8
7 Tobias Harris DET 15.2 6.7 2.4
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.8 4.5 2.2
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.7 7.0 2.2
10 Jalen Duren DET 10.4 10.2 2.3
11 Chris Boucher TOR 10.2 5.0 0.9
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.7 2.0 1.8
13 Davion Mitchell TOR 9.4 2.9 5.2
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.5 3.1 1.3
15 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 3.1 0.9
16 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.2 2.8 1.2
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.1 1.5 1.0
18 Alondes Williams DET 4.8 1.9 2.4
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.6 4.2 1.0
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.3 1.7 0.8
21 Jamal Shead TOR 4.3 1.4 1.6
22 Paul Reed DET 4.2 2.3 0.9
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.6 3.0 0.9
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.