NBA games

ORL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
95–84
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1824163795
CHA2521162284

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHA
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 40 21 1 7
Cole Anthony 27 16 8 4
Moritz Wagner 26 16 8 2
Jonathan Isaac 22 11 6 0
Anthony Black 22 10 3 1
Tristan da Silva S 21 9 3 1
Goga Bitadze S 22 6 4 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 3 4 2
Gary Harris S 7 3 0 0
Jett Howard 23 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 40 44 9 7
Brandon Miller S 38 20 10 4
Seth Curry 13 9 1 0
Cody Martin 25 4 6 2
Taj Gibson S 16 2 7 0
Josh Green S 29 2 3 0
Moussa Diabate 32 2 8 0
Tidjane Salaun S 30 1 7 1
KJ Simpson 8 0 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taj Gibson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Taj Gibson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
22%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
19%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
13%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
11%
5 Josh Green CHA
10%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
8 LaMelo Ball CHA
5%
9 Gary Harris ORL
0%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
16%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 29.4 4.9 7.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 27.5 6.3 6.9
3 Brandon Miller CHA 20.8 5.2 4.1
4 Moritz Wagner ORL 13.6 4.1 2.0
5 Anthony Black ORL 11.5 3.1 5.2
6 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.3 8.1 1.7
7 Cody Martin CHA 9.2 4.2 2.3
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.7 3.1 2.1
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.1 3.9 1.8
10 Josh Green CHA 7.7 2.8 1.7
11 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.8 6.0 0.8
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.1 8.8 0.9
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.0 3.3 1.0
14 Gary Harris ORL 4.8 1.7 0.8
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.8 2.1 1.8
16 Cole Anthony ORL 4.1 1.7 1.0
17 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.6 0.7
18 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 3.1 0.5
19 KJ Simpson CHA 3.2 1.6 1.3
20 Seth Curry CHA 2.8 1.2 0.5
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.6 0.6 0.5
22 Cory Joseph ORL 2.5 1.3 0.9
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.2 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.