NBA games

BKN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
108–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN37282320108
SAC28293115103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home SAC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 36 34 2 6
Noah Clowney 22 18 2 0
Cameron Johnson S 34 16 6 4
Shake Milton 21 10 2 3
Jalen Wilson 33 7 4 2
Keon Johnson 10 6 0 1
Ziaire Williams S 20 6 2 0
Nic Claxton S 23 4 7 3
Ben Simmons S 27 4 3 5
Trendon Watford 15 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 31 1 5
Keegan Murray S 36 21 8 2
DeMar DeRozan S 36 18 5 5
Domantas Sabonis S 35 13 18 7
Kevin Huerter S 32 11 3 0
Keon Ellis 23 9 1 1
Doug McDermott 4 0 0 0
Colby Jones 17 0 2 1
Trey Lyles 19 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
5 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 De'Aaron Fox SAC
8%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
10 Alex Len SAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
25%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.8 4.5 7.3
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.5 4.9 4.9
3 Cam Thomas BKN 23.0 3.5 4.2
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.1 12.6 7.1
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.9 4.0 3.0
6 Dennis Schroder BKN 15.4 3.5 5.6
7 Keegan Murray SAC 12.7 7.5 1.9
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.1 4.1 2.9
9 Nic Claxton BKN 10.1 7.9 2.3
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.5 3.2 1.5
11 Keon Ellis SAC 7.9 2.6 1.3
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 4.1 1.3
13 Ben Simmons BKN 7.5 5.7 5.8
14 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.1 4.3 1.1
15 Trendon Watford BKN 6.2 3.4 1.6
16 Noah Clowney BKN 6.2 2.8 1.0
17 Keon Johnson BKN 4.5 2.4 1.0
18 Doug McDermott SAC 4.4 1.4 0.7
19 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.3 1.7 1.3
20 Colby Jones SAC 3.2 1.4 0.8
21 Shake Milton BKN 2.6 0.8 1.0
22 Tyrese Martin BKN 2.6 0.8 0.3
23 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.