NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22333518108
CLE38273126122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 34 18 7 7
Gradey Dick S 31 18 4 1
RJ Barrett S 33 16 6 6
Jonathan Mogbo 20 13 7 0
Jakob Poeltl S 33 12 19 2
Chris Boucher 14 10 3 0
Ochai Agbaji S 27 9 5 1
Jamal Shead 16 6 2 2
Davion Mitchell 25 6 1 3
Garrett Temple 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome 28 26 3 6
Donovan Mitchell S 35 26 4 1
Jarrett Allen S 32 23 13 2
Darius Garland S 31 16 3 6
Evan Mobley S 33 14 11 4
Isaac Okoro S 29 10 6 4
Sam Merrill 20 3 4 3
Georges Niang 19 2 4 1
Craig Porter Jr. 6 2 0 0
Jaylon Tyson 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
8 Darius Garland CLE
6%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
6%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
17%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.8 5.6 3.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.7 6.8 6.2
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.5 3.4 7.7
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.5 6.5 5.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.4 9.4 2.9
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 18.9 11.6 2.8
7 Gradey Dick TOR 16.7 3.7 3.0
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.9 10.8 2.0
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.9 4.5 2.4
10 Ty Jerome CLE 12.5 2.3 3.8
11 Chris Boucher TOR 11.7 4.9 1.1
12 Georges Niang CLE 9.4 3.4 1.2
13 Davion Mitchell TOR 9.2 3.0 5.4
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.1 2.0 1.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 5.9 1.8 1.2
16 Jamison Battle TOR 4.6 1.4 0.9
17 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.0 2.1 1.2
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.6 3.7 1.1
19 Jamal Shead TOR 3.6 1.1 1.7
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.3 1.5 1.4
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.5 0.4
22 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.4 2.6 0.7
23 Luke Travers CLE 2.3 1.9 0.9
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.