NBA games

DAL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
118–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DAL282333304118
MIA332333259123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 39 27 4 6
P.J. Washington S 40 21 10 3
Naji Marshall 30 20 5 1
Klay Thompson S 31 15 6 1
Dereck Lively II S 31 14 13 4
Daniel Gafford 21 10 8 2
Spencer Dinwiddie 28 7 5 7
Quentin Grimes S 27 4 7 3
Maxi Kleber 9 0 1 1
Jaden Hardy 9 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 38 33 9 6
Bam Adebayo S 38 19 11 5
Tyler Herro S 42 18 10 5
Alec Burks 31 15 2 3
Pelle Larsson 37 14 5 1
Kevin Love 19 9 11 1
Duncan Robinson S 18 8 0 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 7 3 1
Nikola Jovic 6 0 1 1
Haywood Highsmith S 19 0 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
6 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
7 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Quentin Grimes DAL
7%
10 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
19%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.3 4.7 5.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.3 4.9 5.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.3 9.6 4.7
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.8 5.4 5.0
5 Naji Marshall DAL 15.4 3.9 2.9
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.5 7.3 1.2
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.0 3.6 2.0
8 Terry Rozier MIA 12.0 3.6 3.2
9 P.J. Washington DAL 11.9 8.7 1.6
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.2 2.4 1.7
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.6 6.4 1.5
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.5 5.3 2.5
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 2.7 1.0
14 Quentin Grimes DAL 7.7 3.7 1.8
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.8 1.8 1.7
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.5 3.1 1.0
17 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.8 2.2 1.1
18 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.5 1.8 1.7
19 Alec Burks MIA 5.3 2.0 1.4
20 Jazian Gortman DAL 5.0 0.8 1.1
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.7 1.3 1.1
22 Josh Richardson MIA 4.4 1.4 1.3
23 Kevin Love MIA 4.1 2.7 0.6
24 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.5 2.7 0.8
25 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.4 1.8 0.4
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.2 0.6
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.3 1.4 0.3
28 Dwight Powell DAL 2.1 2.4 0.6
29 Markieff Morris DAL 1.5 1.3 0.4
30 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.