NBA games

WSH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
103–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH28312816103
IND31263523115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home IND
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 38 17 6 4
Alex Sarr S 31 17 14 3
Corey Kispert 36 15 2 1
Kyshawn George S 29 15 5 5
Malcolm Brogdon S 25 15 1 5
Kyle Kuzma S 30 10 1 1
Bub Carrington 22 5 4 2
Anthony Gill 6 5 0 0
Jonas Valanciunas 16 4 8 2
Jared Butler 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 22 6 6
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 21 4 9
Bennedict Mathurin S 39 16 6 4
Moses Brown 12 15 4 0
T.J. McConnell 22 12 4 3
Obi Toppin 16 11 3 0
Myles Turner S 30 10 9 1
Johnny Furphy 11 5 0 1
Jarace Walker 20 3 5 4
Quenton Jackson S 22 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:38 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
9%
9 Quenton Jackson IND
9%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.9 6.1 3.3
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.7 7.9 2.4
3 Myles Turner IND 19.6 7.5 2.0
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 19.1 6.0 2.6
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.3 3.7 9.6
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.7 6.3 2.7
7 Alex Sarr WSH 11.3 5.9 2.6
8 T.J. McConnell IND 11.2 3.6 5.1
9 Bub Carrington WSH 11.1 4.3 5.1
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.0 8.1 1.9
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.7 3.4 1.7
12 Kyshawn George WSH 10.2 4.3 2.6
13 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 10.0 4.3 1.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 3.5 1.6
15 Jarace Walker IND 8.2 5.0 2.2
16 Quenton Jackson IND 7.5 2.3 1.9
17 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.3 2.0 3.6
18 Tristen Newton IND 5.5 1.9 2.5
19 Enrique Freeman IND 4.0 2.4 0.8
20 Johnny Furphy IND 3.7 1.8 0.7
21 Jared Butler WSH 3.6 1.1 1.7
22 Marvin Bagley III WSH 2.9 2.3 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 0.9 0.5
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.7 0.9 0.4
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.6 2.0 0.3
26 Johnny Davis WSH 2.5 1.2 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.