NBA games

MIN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27252132105
BOS24312923107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home BOS
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 28 9 7
Julius Randle S 36 23 6 2
Rob Dillingham 16 14 0 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 11 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 32 10 5 1
Rudy Gobert S 34 10 20 0
Naz Reid 26 5 5 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 4 1 4
Josh Minott 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 36 29 2 4
Jayson Tatum S 38 26 8 4
Derrick White S 38 19 9 5
Jrue Holiday S 37 9 4 3
Payton Pritchard 22 8 4 3
Al Horford S 34 8 4 4
Sam Hauser 20 5 5 2
Xavier Tillman 14 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
48%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
22%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.8 8.1 6.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 4.6 4.2
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.5 6.7 5.2
4 Julius Randle MIN 22.1 6.3 4.0
5 Derrick White BOS 18.7 5.0 4.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.3 2.7 3.0
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.8 4.4 3.9
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.9 4.4 1.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 10.1 1.9
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.5 4.6 1.7
11 Al Horford BOS 10.1 5.7 1.9
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.0 3.2 3.2
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.9 3.1 2.4
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.2 1.3
15 Neemias Queta BOS 7.1 5.9 1.0
16 Luka Garza MIN 6.7 2.9 0.4
17 Daishen Nix MIN 6.1 1.6 1.3
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 4.4 1.5
19 Josh Minott MIN 3.7 1.7 0.6
20 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.6 1.2 1.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 2.2 0.7
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.5 0.5
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.4 1.0 0.8
24 PJ Dozier MIN 1.7 0.5 0.5
25 Jaden Springer BOS 1.7 0.5 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.9 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.