NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
127–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31263733127
LAL27361524102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 34 13 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 24 11 4
Christian Braun S 31 16 2 3
Jamal Murray S 30 14 5 5
Russell Westbrook 24 14 7 11
Peyton Watson S 35 11 5 2
Julian Strawther 19 6 2 1
Trey Alexander 10 3 0 0
PJ Hall 3 2 0 0
DeAndre Jordan 5 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 32 19 3 6
LeBron James S 35 18 6 7
Anthony Davis S 35 14 10 3
Max Christie 17 12 0 1
Rui Hachimura S 22 10 2 3
Dalton Knecht 28 9 5 1
D'Angelo Russell 18 7 2 5
Gabe Vincent 14 7 0 1
Cam Reddish S 20 6 0 0
Maxwell Lewis 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Christian Braun makes 2-foot two point shot (Peyton Watson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Christian Braun DEN
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
8 Anthony Davis LAL
7%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.9 12.7 10.4
2 Anthony Davis LAL 29.6 10.6 3.5
3 LeBron James LAL 27.0 8.8 10.1
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 21.5 6.2 3.4
5 Jamal Murray DEN 19.8 4.5 6.7
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.2 3.0 6.3
7 Christian Braun DEN 17.6 5.4 2.3
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.5 4.8 6.6
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.2 2.8 5.1
10 Dalton Knecht LAL 12.7 3.5 1.6
11 Peyton Watson DEN 12.3 4.7 1.7
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.0 5.1 1.6
13 Julian Strawther DEN 9.0 3.0 1.6
14 Cam Reddish LAL 6.4 3.3 1.1
15 Dario Saric DEN 5.4 3.6 1.3
16 Max Christie LAL 5.4 2.2 1.0
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.5 1.6 1.0
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.0 4.2 0.7
19 Trey Alexander DEN 3.8 1.9 1.2
20 Christian Koloko LAL 3.3 2.4 0.7
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 2.0 0.7
22 Armel Traore LAL 2.6 3.0 0.3
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.1 1.0 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.9 1.3 0.5
25 PJ Hall DEN 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.