NBA games

GS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
94104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2921311394
SA17213333104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SA
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 33 20 5 3
Stephen Curry S 32 14 7 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 23 12 8 3
Lindy Waters III S 25 11 4 1
Buddy Hield 24 11 1 4
Kevon Looney 13 8 7 0
Kyle Anderson 13 6 5 1
Moses Moody 22 6 1 1
Gary Payton II 13 5 1 1
Draymond Green S 27 1 7 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 25 7 9
Harrison Barnes S 32 22 8 2
Stephon Castle S 33 19 3 3
Chris Paul S 29 9 3 7
Julian Champagnie S 34 9 5 1
Blake Wesley 14 7 2 1
Malaki Branham 13 6 2 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 5 8 1
Tre Jones 23 2 6 3
Zach Collins 12 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes 1-foot layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
12%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
7 Zach Collins SA
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
41%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.9 10.8 4.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.0 5.3 6.6
3 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.1 4.3 2.3
4 Stephon Castle SA 14.8 3.5 4.7
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.3 4.8 2.0
6 Buddy Hield GS 12.7 4.1 1.6
7 Draymond Green GS 12.6 6.7 5.8
8 Julian Champagnie SA 12.3 4.7 2.2
9 Chris Paul SA 12.2 3.8 8.6
10 Harrison Barnes SA 11.0 5.0 1.9
11 Zach Collins SA 9.0 4.0 2.2
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.3 4.2 3.0
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.7 5.7 1.7
14 Tre Jones SA 6.9 2.5 3.7
15 Moses Moody GS 6.7 2.5 0.9
16 Malaki Branham SA 6.3 1.8 1.6
17 Kyle Anderson GS 6.2 3.3 2.2
18 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 2.6 1.6
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 7.2 1.3
20 Charles Bassey SA 5.3 4.7 0.6
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.7 2.6 0.9
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.5 2.4 0.7
23 Blake Wesley SA 4.4 1.4 1.5
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.8 1.6 0.7
25 Gui Santos GS 2.4 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.