NBA games

CHA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
119–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA28233434119
MIL28313729125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 40 50 5 10
Brandon Miller S 43 32 11 3
Josh Green S 31 11 5 0
Grant Williams S 32 8 7 2
Tidjane Salaun 17 6 2 1
Cody Martin 29 6 6 4
Taj Gibson 4 4 0 0
Seth Curry 4 2 0 0
Moussa Diabate S 31 0 11 2
Vasilije Micic 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 32 11 6
Damian Lillard S 35 31 4 4
Gary Trent Jr. 29 16 3 2
Brook Lopez S 38 13 8 2
Bobby Portis 27 11 7 2
AJ Green 25 9 6 0
Taurean Prince S 22 8 5 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 21 5 6 4
Delon Wright 13 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
6 Josh Green CHA
8%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Grant Williams CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
95%
Jumper
1%
Layup
2%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 11.2 8.4
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.2 4.8 7.0
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.6 4.2 8.2
4 Brandon Miller CHA 20.8 4.6 4.5
5 Bobby Portis MIL 14.1 7.3 1.6
6 Brook Lopez MIL 12.6 5.6 2.0
7 Grant Williams CHA 11.8 5.8 2.0
8 Taurean Prince MIL 9.4 4.2 2.2
9 Cody Martin CHA 9.3 4.1 2.2
10 AJ Green MIL 9.0 2.7 1.3
11 Josh Green CHA 7.7 2.5 1.7
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.6 2.2 1.2
13 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.9 3.0 1.7
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.0 9.2 0.8
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.7 3.5 1.0
16 Delon Wright MIL 4.6 2.4 2.0
17 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.1 1.8 1.7
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.1 1.9 1.4
19 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 3.3 0.6
20 KJ Simpson CHA 3.4 1.8 1.3
21 Seth Curry CHA 3.3 1.3 0.5
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.9 0.9 0.6
23 Ryan Rollins MIL 2.8 1.1 0.8
24 Liam Robbins MIL 2.7 1.9 0.7
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 1.8 0.5
26 Stanley Umude MIL 2.6 1.4 0.6
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.4 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.