NBA games

POR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26262131104
HOU2129212798

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home HOU
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 37 25 4 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 36 24 3 1
Jerami Grant S 33 22 3 2
Deni Avdija 33 14 10 2
Dalano Banton 22 7 6 5
Kris Murray 14 7 1 1
Toumani Camara S 28 5 5 1
Duop Reath 5 0 1 0
Donovan Clingan S 26 0 19 1
Rayan Rupert 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 22 5 5
Amen Thompson 35 19 7 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 14 8 1
Dillon Brooks S 31 13 5 1
Jalen Green S 30 10 2 2
Reed Sheppard 11 8 0 0
Fred VanVleet S 28 8 5 5
Tari Eason 20 4 5 0
Jock Landale 12 0 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
22%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 10.9 5.5
2 Jalen Green HOU 18.4 5.0 3.3
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.8 4.9 6.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.7 3.5 2.4
5 Jerami Grant POR 14.6 3.4 2.5
6 Anfernee Simons POR 14.6 2.7 3.7
7 Tari Eason HOU 13.4 7.9 1.7
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.1 3.5 2.1
9 Amen Thompson HOU 12.7 7.5 2.7
10 Deandre Ayton POR 12.4 9.5 1.2
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.7 5.5 1.1
12 Dalano Banton POR 11.3 3.2 2.8
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.4 5.7 2.0
14 Scoot Henderson POR 10.3 3.0 4.8
15 Deni Avdija POR 10.1 5.3 2.6
16 Donovan Clingan POR 7.0 7.7 0.8
17 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.4 2.0 1.8
18 Jock Landale HOU 4.8 3.4 1.0
19 Kris Murray POR 4.6 2.2 0.6
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.5 1.4 1.4
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 1.9 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.7 1.6 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.7 2.5 0.7
24 Jabari Walker POR 3.5 2.2 0.6
25 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.4 1.6 0.6
26 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.4 0.6
27 Justin Minaya POR 3.1 1.1 0.6
28 Taze Moore POR 2.6 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.