NBA games

MEM @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
142–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30344533142
CHI22383833131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHI
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 31 30 2 10
Jaylen Wells S 32 26 4 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 26 23 4 4
Jay Huff 19 14 5 1
Desmond Bane S 30 13 7 2
Brandon Clarke S 24 12 8 2
Luke Kennard 24 10 4 2
Santi Aldama 24 10 10 5
Jake LaRavia 18 2 4 6
Cam Spencer 12 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 34 29 3 0
Nikola Vucevic S 28 26 8 3
Matas Buzelis 29 14 3 1
Josh Giddey S 21 12 7 8
Coby White S 30 11 4 5
Talen Horton-Tucker 18 10 2 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 29 8 1 5
Jalen Smith 15 7 5 0
E.J. Liddell 5 6 0 1
Jevon Carter 5 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Clarke · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Brandon Clarke makes 6-foot two point shot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Coby White CHI
10%
5 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.4 6.5 2.1
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.4 4.9 5.1
3 Coby White CHI 20.1 3.5 5.5
4 Desmond Bane MEM 19.6 6.4 4.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.4 9.2 3.2
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.6 3.5 1.9
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.6 4.5 5.5
8 Santi Aldama MEM 13.6 7.0 3.6
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.6 3.5 4.0
10 Josh Giddey CHI 11.9 5.5 5.8
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.6 4.6 4.1
12 Jay Huff MEM 7.9 2.9 1.0
13 Luke Kennard MEM 6.9 2.4 3.0
14 Dalen Terry CHI 6.6 2.4 1.3
15 Jalen Smith CHI 6.2 4.2 1.0
16 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 3.6 0.8
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.7 3.0 0.7
18 Torrey Craig CHI 4.6 1.8 0.6
19 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.9 1.3
20 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.0 1.8 1.1
21 Chris Duarte CHI 3.3 1.2 0.7
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.2 1.1 0.8
23 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.4 1.8 0.5
24 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.2 0.5 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.