NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
100–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET21322621100
ORL33233223111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 28 19 7 2
Malik Beasley S 31 18 1 4
Marcus Sasser 21 13 2 2
Tobias Harris S 29 8 5 1
Jalen Duren S 25 7 4 1
Isaiah Stewart 20 7 5 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 15 7 2 1
Alondes Williams 4 5 0 1
Paul Reed 6 5 0 0
Simone Fontecchio 16 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 29 30 9 8
Moritz Wagner 28 18 7 5
Anthony Black 32 11 1 5
Jett Howard 15 10 4 0
Tristan da Silva S 26 8 6 1
Goga Bitadze S 18 8 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 8 0 2
Gary Harris 18 7 2 0
Jonathan Isaac 23 5 12 0
Cole Anthony 10 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Malik Beasley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
17%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Tobias Harris DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
10 Gary Harris ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.3 5.9 6.5
2 Jaden Ivey DET 19.6 4.9 4.9
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.3 4.8 3.5
4 Tobias Harris DET 15.1 6.8 2.2
5 Malik Beasley DET 14.6 3.9 2.1
6 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.5 4.2 1.6
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.7 8.8 1.7
8 Anthony Black ORL 10.5 3.3 4.5
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.6 1.9 1.9
10 Jalen Duren DET 9.5 9.1 2.1
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.5 6.9 1.7
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.4 3.2 2.0
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.1 3.8 1.8
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.8 5.0 0.7
15 Cole Swider DET 6.7 3.1 1.1
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.5 3.0 1.2
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.6 2.9 0.7
18 Gary Harris ORL 4.7 1.7 0.7
19 Alondes Williams DET 4.6 2.0 2.6
20 Cole Anthony ORL 4.6 2.0 1.0
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.4 2.5 0.9
22 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 1.7 0.6
23 Marcus Sasser DET 3.6 1.3 1.1
24 Paul Reed DET 2.6 2.1 0.6
25 Cory Joseph ORL 2.5 1.4 0.7
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.3 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.