NBA games

ORL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
119–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL36242930119
LAL38292130118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home LAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 37 6 11
Jalen Suggs S 40 23 5 5
Moritz Wagner 18 19 5 4
Tristan da Silva S 32 12 4 1
Gary Harris S 26 11 1 1
Goga Bitadze S 30 7 15 2
Anthony Black 22 4 4 5
Cole Anthony 4 2 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 18 2 6 0
Jett Howard 11 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 39 9 2
LeBron James S 37 31 10 7
Dalton Knecht S 39 17 4 1
Austin Reaves S 33 9 2 3
Cam Reddish S 21 8 8 0
D'Angelo Russell 23 7 1 6
Max Christie 25 5 1 1
Christian Koloko 10 2 1 1
Gabe Vincent 14 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"LeBron James makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
15%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
10 Dalton Knecht LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
59%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.2 11.2 3.4
2 LeBron James LAL 26.3 8.6 9.6
3 Franz Wagner ORL 26.1 5.9 6.4
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.5 3.0 5.8
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.0 4.6 3.5
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.8 2.8 4.4
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.4 4.1 1.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 5.3 1.5
9 Dalton Knecht LAL 11.3 3.2 1.4
10 Anthony Black ORL 10.7 3.3 4.9
11 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.3 7.7 1.8
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.2 4.0 2.1
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.0 4.8 0.8
14 Cam Reddish LAL 5.9 2.9 0.9
15 Max Christie LAL 5.1 2.1 0.9
16 Cole Anthony ORL 4.8 2.1 1.3
17 Jett Howard ORL 4.8 1.7 0.7
18 Gary Harris ORL 4.5 1.9 0.8
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.5 1.4 0.9
20 Cory Joseph ORL 3.0 1.5 0.9
21 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 2.1 0.5
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.7 1.3 0.6
23 Armel Traore LAL 2.5 2.9 0.2
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.